Conall Boyle

Catalonia Picks UBI Recipients by Lottery

Posted on January 2, 2023 by Conall Boyle

Peter Knight writes on the Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN) website:

The Universal Basic Income (UBI) pilot plan is one of the projects that the Catalan Government will carry out during this term of office that ends in February 2025.

In the Catalan pilot plan, some 5,000 people will receive the UBI: 2,500 will be randomly selected from all households in Catalonia and the remaining 2,500 will correspond to the population of two municipalities.

During the two years of the pilot, participants will receive a monthly payment of €800 per adult and €300 per child under 18 years of age. Individuals with the 10% highest incomes will be excluded from participating in the pilot, as well as people who have paid the patrimony tax (real estate of more than 500.000 euros). This is because the economic simulations of what an hypothetical basic income policy in Catalonia would look like, stated that the balance between the taxes and the amount of money of the UBI would be negative for the 10-15% highest incomes – they wouldn’t have a net gain with the UBI. That’s why the design excludes them from the pilot. Also excluded are people who have had to pay the patrimony tax so as not to include people without labour income (who would be eligible) but have enormous wealth in properties (living off investments, rents, etc.).

All persons who, once the random selection by addresses and municipalities has been carried out and their selection has been communicated by mail, formalize their willingness to participate by means of the web form, will be considered as participants in the pilot plan.

Filed under: Distribution by lot, Elections, Experiments | Leave a comment »

Using Lottery Prizes to Incentivise Covid Vaccine Take-Up

Posted on November 22, 2022 by Conall Boyle

According to the article “Mastering the art of persuasion during a pandemic” in the journal Nature (OUTLOOK, 26 October 2022):

After the first COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in the United States, local and state officials invested millions in the idea that waving money at people would convince them to get the jabs. Leaders tried straight cash incentives, whereby people collected a set sum for getting vaccinated, as well as lotteries, in which vaccinated people were entered into a draw to win a cash prize.

But the concept often flopped. One study (3) that gauged the effectiveness of vaccine lotteries found that vaccination rates were not significantly higher in lottery states than in non-lottery ones. Guaranteed cash payouts were somewhat more likely to encourage vaccination, a meta-analysis showed (4). Still, the evidence on incentive-based persuasion “is pretty disheartening in general”, Milkman says.

She is now studying a twist on the lottery strategy that might deliver more value for money — a regret lottery. This involves telling people that their name has been entered into a draw to win a large amount of money, but if their name is pulled from the hat and they have not been vaccinated then they will have to decline the reward. When Milkman and her team tried this in Philadelphia (5), vaccine rates in the area increased slightly compared with those in other, similar areas that did not have a regret lottery. “The one data point we have looks promising,” Milkman says, but further research is needed to confirm the finding.

References from the original:

(3) Law, A. C. et al. JAMA Intern Med. 182, 235–237 (2022).

(4) Brewer, N. T. et al. Lancet Reg. Health Am. 8, 100205 (2022).

(5) Milkman, K. L. et al. Nature Hum. Behav. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01437-0 (2022).

Filed under: Academia, Applications, Distribution by lot, Press | 1 Comment »

Should we choose our leaders at random? A podcast

Posted on November 4, 2022 by Conall Boyle

The Bunker is a podcast billing itself as “fearless, independent politics talk for Britain and beyond. We examine the big issues with humour and expertise, cutting through the claptrap to make sense of what’s really going on – and give you the fighting spirit to keep on keeping on.”

Its Nov. 4th, 2022 episode discusses sortition:

We’re not on a great run of political leaders at the moment – is the problem how we pick them? And what if we simply… didn’t? Rather than choosing between a bunch of self-serving, pound-crashing Westminster drones – could democratic lotteries be the answer? Brett Hennig, author of The End of Politicians: Time for a Real Democracy and director of the Sortition Foundation discusses how we pick our representatives, and how we could change it, with Jacob Jarvis.

Filed under: Press, Sortition | 1 Comment »

Making research funding a lottery could help tackle ‘status bias’

Posted on October 19, 2022 by Conall Boyle

Interesting article in the Financial Times.

The system of peer review tends to favour established names and institutions

By Anjana Ahujaa. The writer is a science commentator.

Star names wield an outsize influence over research, as well as in sport and entertainment. A recent analysis revealed that a research paper written jointly by a Nobel laureate and a novice was rejected by 65 per cent of reviewers when only the novice’s name was made visible as the corresponding author — but by just 23 per cent if the laureate’s name was used instead.

One might argue that “status bias”, also called the Matthew effect, makes for a reasonable short-cut in decision-making, given that prizes are one benchmark of quality.

But findings like these chime with persistent concerns that established names and institutions are unfairly crowding out newer research talent when it comes to publishing papers and winning grants. Now, two UK funding agencies, the British Academy and the Natural Environment Research Council, will try to counter that bias by awarding some of their research grants by lottery.
Continue reading →

Filed under: Academia, Applications, Distribution by lot, Proposals | Leave a comment »

Sandel: “Summon Chance to Chasten Meritocratic Hubris”

Posted on January 1, 2022 by Conall Boyle

Millions of YouTube viewers will be familiar with Michael Sandel of Harvard University’s lectures on Justice. He has been described as “a philosopher with the global profile of a rock star”, so it is greatly encouraging when in his book The Tyranny of Merit he emphatically endorses the use of lotteries for admission to elite universities.

His condemnation of actual existing Meritocracy is well worth a read, not least the societally damaging effects of hubris and self-worth among the elite ‘winners’; and the despondency and nihilistic voting for Brexit and Trump by the ‘losers’ and indeed all the non-credentialled.

In Chapter 6 makes a heartfelt and extended plea for the extensive use of lotteries for admission to not just Ivy League, but all selective colleges and universities. This Sandel says would “summon Chance to chasten Merit”.

I’m sure most readers are familiar with the American S.A.T. (Standardized Attainment Test), a sort of IQ test inflicted on 18-year-olds. This, Sandel suggests, could be used to establish a threshold for entry into the selection lottery and nothing else. This level of ‘Merit’ should be no more onerous than that imposed when the SAT was originated in the 1940s.

From this device Sandel argues that winners will be saved much stress and avoid much of the (wasted?) effort of working towards the impressive list of activities that fills out their application form. Losers will gain too. No more rejections, and being made to feel inadequate, despite losing narrowly. Much more psychologically healthy all round!

Continue reading →

Filed under: Academia, Distribution by lot, education | Tagged: Lottery, university entry | 5 Comments »

34% of White Uni Applicants lie about their race, says study

Posted on November 4, 2021 by Conall Boyle

A clear case for banning contentious category quizzing, and the use of randomised selection for ALL qualified applicants?

Read on

https://news.yahoo.com/survey-34-white-college-students-173329031.html

Filed under: Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

The best case ever that I’ve seen for awarding jobs, promotions and redundos by Lottery

Posted on October 5, 2021 by Conall Boyle

A delightful short video, with academic backing.

Where is the quota for the short, the fat, the bald men, and all the other uglies?

Dominic Frisby adds:

It is based on some research I once read by American economist Daniel Hamermesh about the most discriminated against group in society. It doesn’t matter what race you are, what class, what sex or what age: beauty pays – attractive people are more successful. It features popular adult actress Zara du Rose, pictured above, as the Evil Queen and a host of others.

I included some of this in my own paper from 1997

http://www.conallboyle.com/lottery/Boyle1998RSSStatistician.pdf

Filed under: Academia, Distribution by lot | Tagged: Employment, fairness, interviews, lottery selection | Leave a comment »

The Irish Times: Colleges expect spike in random selection

Posted on September 4, 2021 by Conall Boyle

The Irish Times reports:

Colleges expect spike in random selection: High-points courses in health, law, pharmacy and science most likely to be affected

A system of lottery entry for equal-scoring candidates has been in place in Ireland since 2009. It seems that this year’s exceptional circumstances (Covid) has led to a ‘spike’ in its use.

Perhaps the headline should have read:

For those scoring equally high points, despite (a Covid-related) spike in top scores, random selection (a lottery) will sort out who wins a place

The article continues:

Universities fear they will have to restrict entry to more high-points courses on the basis of “random selection” this year due to record-breaking Leaving Cert results.

Results this year climbed to a new high with a sharp increase in the number of students securing top H1 grades.

Senior university sources expect they will have to introduce more random cut-off points for entry into high-demand courses such as medicine, dentistry, law, pharmacy and science when CAO offers issue on Tuesday next.
Continue reading →

Filed under: Applications, Distribution by lot, education, Press, schools | Tagged: education, random selection | 8 Comments »

A hit-piece against Lottery admissions

Posted on June 21, 2021 by Conall Boyle

Prof. Jonathan Turley is an American legal scholar. In an article on his blog, he sounds the alarm regarding proposals to admit students to U.S. universities at random.

“Just Blind Chance”: The Rising Call For “Random Selection” For College Admissions

Random selection is not generally an approach that most people opt for in the selection of doctors or even restaurants or a movie. However, it appears to be the new model for some in higher education. Former Barnard College mathematics professor Cathy O’Neil has written a column calling for “random selection” of all college graduates to guarantee racial diversity. It is ever so simple: “Never mind optional standardized tests. If you show interest, your name goes in a big hat.” She is not the only one arguing for blind or random admissions.

Blind selection is the final default position for many schools. Universities have spent decades working around court decisions limiting the reliance on race as an admissions criterion. Many still refuse to disclose the full data on scores and grades for admitted students. If faced with a new decision further limiting (or entirely eliminating) race as a criterion, blind selection would effectively eliminate any basis for judicial review.
Continue reading →

Filed under: Academia, Ballot measures, Distribution by lot, education, Proposals, schools | 5 Comments »